THE ECONOMICS OF: KENYA vs AL-SHABAAB WAR

They say that despite the political reasons given for war, the genuine reason is always economic. This can be well understood by looking at the war that Kenya is currently engaged in against the al-shabaab militia in Somalia.

It all started when the al-shabaab began attacking the sovereignty of the Kenyan nation by kidnapping tourist from the country. It later rose to two other Spanish workers at the Daadab refugee camp being kidnapped by the same group of terrorists. It might not appear to be such a big issue as to lead to the Kenya Army to embark on a mission it has never tried out since independence in 1963; especially considering the fact that it is three people who have been kidnapped. However, lovers of Kenya and Kenyans themselves understand the magnitude of these acts of terrorism and how they stem to the core of the Kenyan economy.

Kenya is one of the many developing countries which depend on agriculture for their economic development. In Kenya though, the second best contributor to the country’s GDP is tourism. It is in this sector of tourism that much revenue is generated from to fund development projects in other sectors of the economy. Therefore, anybody or anything threatening this sector, is in actual sense threatening the Kenyan economy and as such is also threatening its people.

The kidnapping of these foreigners poses a great threat to the tourism sector as it portrays Kenya as insecure; and thus very few tourists would risk their lives by visiting Kenya. Reduction in the number of tourists visiting Kenya translates to less revenue being collected by the government, a bigger budget deficit, less development projects, high unemployment rates both directly and indirectly and many more economic storms. Whoever would cause such a downturn to the Kenyan economy, would be indeed an enemy of Kenya; no wonder the Kenyan Minister of Defence Prof. George Saitoti termed the al-shabaab as “the enemy”.


An enemy yes! The al-shabaab is a terror group that must be fought with all might, power and spirit. But the timing might have been the most untimely. Think of the current inflation in the country, the food shortage, depreciating shilling, a declining bourse and the high oil prices, and you will have a reason to be worried if you are a Kenyan in Kenya at this phase of our economy. It should be brought to your notice that war is not just a matter of words and threats; it requires so much funding that it might drain the economy of its so much needed money at this moment.

I am not a prophet of doom, but truth be told, Kenyans, we are out for even harder times ahead. Depending on how long the war might take, the economy might be affected so badly that we might just end up in the same situation as Greece is in today.

They say, a journey of a thousand miles, start with one step. I say, a journey to huge cuts of government spending and other exaggerated austerity measures start with very small and insignificant cuts on government spending while at the same time creating a strong base to necessitate the higher cuts. Looking at the war Kenya has started against the al-shabaab at this hard economic times, one is left to start mourning for the pain ahead for Kenyans even before it arrives; because it is so scary.

The government has already started issuing notices to various government ministries to cut down their spending due to the prevailing economic downturn. However, as if working against its own plans, it sets out to war knowing very well, its cost implication on the economy; hence creating even a better platform for further cuts on government spending.

Time never lies. Soon, we all shall come to know the truth behind these wars and economic woes all over the world. Come to think of it; what a coincidence is it that a high profile person like the IMF president or former UN Secretary General visits Kenya, just after Kenya getting into war in its deteriorating economic phase?
As you ponder on the above question, look forward to deeper revelations of the truth behind the controllers of the world economy and their inhuman intentions.